Shipbuilding Industry

Shipbuilding Basics

There are ~40,000 oceangoing cargo ships in the world fleet.

Ships are designed to last 30 years, so ~3.3% of this fleet should be replaced every year.
In practice, ships last longer than 30 years and only ~2.0% of the fleet is replaced every year.

To keep pace with world trade, the capacity of the cargo fleet needs to grow by ~2.8% a year.
In practice, ships get bigger and more efficient, and only ~2.0% of the fleet is added every year.

4% of 40,000 is 1,600 ships a year: the number actually built fluctuates in a 30-year cycle.

The Main Market Sectors

“All Other” includes car carriers, ferries, reefer ships and multi-purpose cargo ships, which are small compared to the other types but are more valuable on a per-ton basis.

LNG carriers are a small sector of the market in terms of # of ships and GT but are much more valuable on a per-ton basis.

Market Shares

72% of the world cargo fleet (by # of ships) but 90% (by dwt) is built in the Far East.

CGTs are “compensated” GTs – i.e., GTs multiplied by a factor that reflects relative complexity.

“All Other” is mostly Europe, Brazil and India.

 

Big Shipyard

Building BIG Ships

There is a noticeable break in ship size distribution that corresponds to the breadth of the Panama Canal.

There is a corresponding break in the structure of the shipbuilding industry.

The yards that build BIG ships don’t build SMALL ships and vice versa.

There are now over 600 yards building commercial vessels, of which over 200 build “Panamax” ships but only 42 build BIG ships.

The BIG-Ship Shipbuilders

Japan (18)

IHI Marine (2)   Imabari (2)   Kawasaki
Koyo Dockyard   Mitsubishi    Mitsui
Namura   Oshima    Sanoyas   Sasebo
Sumitomo   Tsuneishi (2)   Universal (3)

Korea (5)

Daewoo   Hanjin   Hyundai   Samho   Samsung

China (6)

Dalian  Hudong   Jiangnan
Liaoning   Nantong    Waigaoqiao

Europe (9)

Aker – Turku (Finland)
Atlantique (France)
Fincantieri (Italy) (3)
IZAR (Spain)
Meyer Werft (Germany)
Odense(Denmark)
Brodosplit (Croatia)

Other (4)

Avondale (U.S.)
NASSCO (U.S.)
Newport News (U.S.)
China SB (Taiwan)

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